Thursday, June 17, 2010

Accleration

I've not blogged for awhile but would like to restart! In the meantime events seem to have accelerated rapidly leaving a host of prospective topics but with the danger of moving too rapidly really to pin down. Since February developments in general don't seem to have improved, but rather to have deteriorated.

In foreign affairs the same cast of characters prevails:

Afghanistan - still a mess and I fear that the trends are not favorable.
Iraq - we're not out of this country yet and the poltitics still don't seem especially stable.
Iran - the repressive mullahs seem firmly entrenched and hell bent on exporting extremism and building nuclear capacity.
Venezuela - one could think that Hugo Chavez is in difficulties but he's still in charge and still an enemy.
North Korea - the regime seems fragile but China will prop it up to avoid having 25 million starving Koreans head north while South Korea, Japan and the US sort out an appropriate approach.
China - where is it going politically and economically and what does the US do about it, assuming it can do anything.
Japan - its new political party in power has stumbled and the country still lacks a coherent policy to overcome economic stagnation and an aging population.
Pakistan - is this country for real, or is it a failed state. Should the US just bank on India as the leading partner in South Asia?

In terms of US domestic issues events seem even more confused. We have a very unhappy electorate that seems determined to "throw the rascals out" even though we're not sure who they are. It does seem clear that Barack Obama has lost a lot of traction. Many, many citizens are unhappy with the ever rising public deficit. They're also stressed out by continuing high unemployment and the housing crisis. I suspect that the Health Care Reform legislation as it enters into force and begins affecting people's health care, often in negative ways, could well generate a back lash against this administration and its adherents. The administration is also conflicted between the need to show some signs of fiscal probity but at the same time maintain a level of fiscal stimulus and pay offs to its liberal constituents. Bank and financial regulation is another potential land mine. Forced reductions in bank fees may well lead to other charges, like fees on checking accounts. And finally there is the little matter of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that threatens the lives of people in four states. The Obama administration's response has not been especially adept - admittedly it has been a disaster on an unprecedented scale - but using the crisis as a crutch for a "green" approach to energy conservation including carbon caps and oil drilling moratoria is not likely to play out well. This doesn't seem to be a particularly good time for America. It must be all those illegal aliens causing the problems.

As I find time I'll try to spend more time on selected issues not that I have any solutions either. So until later, I leave you to watch the accelerating world events.

No comments: