CristalNacht

I couldn't pass up the pun, although I admit that the Nazi rampage against Jewish shops during the CristalNacht of the 1930's was far more nefarious than President Obama's sacking of General McChrystal. What is now clear is that Afghanistan is Obama's war.

The best comment I have read about the situation appeared in the Wall Street Journal on June 23: a think piece by Elliot A. Cohen who presently teaches at the Johns Hopkins University and who has been a student of wartime leadership issues.

While McChrystal has erred and Cohen opined that he would have to go, he wrote that the problems were not the General's fault. Cohen believes that the Obama administration made three large errors in the conduct of the Afghan war.

First, it assembled a dysfunctional team of McChrystal, Eikenberry and Holbrooke, three quite able men but who, as anyone who knew them would have predicted, could not work together effectively, to carry out the agreed policy. General Eikenberry is a former Army commander in Afghanistan and holds views on the war very different from those of McChrystal. He also loathes Afghan President Karzai. Holbrooke, a diplomatic powerhouse, added yet another layer of command into the already difficult relationships.

Second, the Administration engaged in an excruciating strategy review last fall during which its internal dissensions became public. The leaks from the process revealed that Vice President Biden's view of how to conduct the war differed strongly from those of Secretary of Defense Gates and Secretary of State Clinton. The process was unnerving to the military staffs charged with conducting the war.

Third, and the most damaging, was President Obama's speech at West Point in December 2009 in which he put his own ambivalence about the war on public view and announced that troop withdrawal would begin in July 2011. This blunder demoralized the American side while elating the enemy. They now only have to hang in for another year or so and the Americans will be gone.

General McChrystal's forced resignation perhaps moves to reinstate an American tradition of military deference to civilian authority. But it certainly does nothing to enhance the conduct of what is at best a difficult attempt to bring peace and civility to a badly damaged expanse of territory. Under the best of circumstances Afghanistan presents a difficult situation. It is essentially a failed state with little central authority, little and poor infrastructure, very low levels of human capital and almost nothing that resembles a national identity.

Efforts to build a nation from this melange and at the same time defeat a well established insurgency would tax the resources of any nation. I fear that the results of American efforts will not be pretty. Afghanistan should not be the sole conceern of the US, but I see no movement on the part of NATO allies to become further involved, instead, there appears to be a lessening of support. I do not believe that the American public, especially Obama's liberal supporters, have the patience to put up with a long, difficult and costly exercise for what I think is perceived as little gain.

The countries most at risk are not actually the US but Afghanistan's neighbors, especially Pakistan. Attitudes in Pakistan are clearly ambivalent as the governmenmt strives to contain insurgency and loss of control along its western border, but at the same time resentful of American influence (the US is perceived as anti-Muslim as well)and so it positionins itself to be a factor, at least in southern Afghanistan, when the Americans move out as expected.

Islamic extremists and the export of drugs are no bargains for the "Stans" to the north nor for Russia, but this commonality of risk hasn't evoked much in the way of support for the US, some but not much. A past "cold war" mentality and Russian resentment of its lowered status in world affairs seem to overcome a more realistic view of its true interests in the region.

And so what will be the final output? Who knows, but I can foresee the possibility of a gradual phase out of support from the US and the evolution of some sort of political settlement in Afghanistan that provides cover for a Western exit but leaves Afghanistan essentially unchanged.

Accleration

I've not blogged for awhile but would like to restart! In the meantime events seem to have accelerated rapidly leaving a host of prospective topics but with the danger of moving too rapidly really to pin down. Since February developments in general don't seem to have improved, but rather to have deteriorated.

In foreign affairs the same cast of characters prevails:

Afghanistan - still a mess and I fear that the trends are not favorable.
Iraq - we're not out of this country yet and the poltitics still don't seem especially stable.
Iran - the repressive mullahs seem firmly entrenched and hell bent on exporting extremism and building nuclear capacity.
Venezuela - one could think that Hugo Chavez is in difficulties but he's still in charge and still an enemy.
North Korea - the regime seems fragile but China will prop it up to avoid having 25 million starving Koreans head north while South Korea, Japan and the US sort out an appropriate approach.
China - where is it going politically and economically and what does the US do about it, assuming it can do anything.
Japan - its new political party in power has stumbled and the country still lacks a coherent policy to overcome economic stagnation and an aging population.
Pakistan - is this country for real, or is it a failed state. Should the US just bank on India as the leading partner in South Asia?

In terms of US domestic issues events seem even more confused. We have a very unhappy electorate that seems determined to "throw the rascals out" even though we're not sure who they are. It does seem clear that Barack Obama has lost a lot of traction. Many, many citizens are unhappy with the ever rising public deficit. They're also stressed out by continuing high unemployment and the housing crisis. I suspect that the Health Care Reform legislation as it enters into force and begins affecting people's health care, often in negative ways, could well generate a back lash against this administration and its adherents. The administration is also conflicted between the need to show some signs of fiscal probity but at the same time maintain a level of fiscal stimulus and pay offs to its liberal constituents. Bank and financial regulation is another potential land mine. Forced reductions in bank fees may well lead to other charges, like fees on checking accounts. And finally there is the little matter of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that threatens the lives of people in four states. The Obama administration's response has not been especially adept - admittedly it has been a disaster on an unprecedented scale - but using the crisis as a crutch for a "green" approach to energy conservation including carbon caps and oil drilling moratoria is not likely to play out well. This doesn't seem to be a particularly good time for America. It must be all those illegal aliens causing the problems.

As I find time I'll try to spend more time on selected issues not that I have any solutions either. So until later, I leave you to watch the accelerating world events.