HISTORY IS FICKLE

Historical perspective of people and events changes over time, sometimes becoming more favorable and other times less so. Reputations of many American Presidents have varied widely over the decades.

At present, it would appear that a strong majority of the world's population favors Barack Obama for President of the United States. As stated in a recent Indian newspaper editorial, Obama's election will be viewed as a repudiation of racism in America and will bring to the office a person much less bellicose in foreign policy and much more attuned to the pulse of world opinion than either President George W. Bush or Senator John McCain. What all these well wishers ognore at their peril is that Obama, many democratic politicians and especially the labor unions are opposed to globalization, free trade and the consequences of unbridled capitalism. Democrats have refused to support free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea. Candidate Obama has called for renegotiating NAFTA and chastising the Chinese for "currency manipulation". There are calls by Obama and other democrats to somehow reverse outsourcing of jobs and to punish corporations for going off shore. This appeals to many Americans burdened as they are by an economic recession and a great deal of economic uncertainty, not to speak of lost jobs, collapsed housing prices and devalued share holdings. It's not an uncommon call in American history: "America First"! Let's take care of things here before we worry about the rest of the world. Besides its easier to blame foreigners than admit our own errors.

The irony is that should a President Obama folow through on his various pronouncements, life will not be as good for his overseas well wishers as they naively believe. Asian economies especially, but others as well, have benefited strongly from selling into the American market. A recession of and by itself will reduce American consumption and damage foreign exporters. However, other aspects of protectionism could mean declines in employment at off shore call centers and online services, not to speak of impeded capital flows and lessened business investment.

The Indian editorial mentioned above concluded that India would be better off if McCain wins the election. Assuming Obama wins and that the Obama-Reid-Pelosi combo realize their aspirations, four years downt the road our international trading partners may well look back at the Bush era with longing. There is an old saying: "Be careful of what you wish for, you may get it".

I am confident that as the years pass, history''s evaluation of the G.W. Bush administration will rise, to the undoubted consternation of today's Bush-haters. History, properly viewed, is never short term.